Is Andy Afraid of Rudy?

Yesterday, the New York Post reported that the New York Attorney General and aspiring gubernatorial candidate sent a message to Rudy Giuliani: I'm all in!

The Post reported that:

"The confidential message, conveyed through intermediaries, was delivered to Giuliani recently and is expected to play a central role in the former mayor's impending decision on whether to run as the Republican candidate for governor in 2010, sources with knowledge of the situation said.
It was sent as a courtesy -- Giuliani says he's "friends" with Cuomo -- and as a warning that the former presidential candidate would face a brutal and, according to a dozen recent polls, losing battle against the highly popular attorney general."

It was an interesting move and I would be satisfied with the explanation that Cuomo was courteously giving Rudy a heads up except for one bothersome fact: who didn't know that Cuomo was running for Governor?

Cuomo has made his intentions very clear: he is going to challenge his Party's current governor in 2010, assuming the Governor Paterson chooses to run again. Cuomo has already begun fund raising for his campaign. The potential match up between Paterson and Cuomo even gained national attention when it was alleged that one of the President's political advisers asked Paterson to step down and not run for re-election. And than there was the debate over the Obama hug/snub when he was in upstate New York a few weeks back.

So, again, it is safe to assume that Rudy - and the rest of the nation - has long known of Cuomo's political aspirations. Why, then, the warning, or the heads up, or whatever else you choose to call it?

Cuomo is getting nervous. A primary against Paterson will be ugly, unpleasant ( Paterson is New York's first African American governor) and, most importantly, costly. And, there is a very realistic possibility that it might become a three-way Primary, only complicating Cuomo's life even further.

Rudy is the only New York Republican that can wage a legitimate campaign for the governorship - sorry Lazio, but you ain't got a shot. Rudy might be running behind Cuomo in the polls now, however, if Cuomo gets caught up in a rough Primary, voters' opinions of him will inevitably change and for the worse.

If Rudy does run, Cuomo's life becomes very difficult. When developing a campaign strategy, he will be forced to build up reserves for a legitimate General Election campaign whereas if Rudy chooses not to run, Cuomo can focus a far larger number of resources - both money and manpower - in the Democratic Primaries to ensure his victory against Paterson and whoever else emerges in that contest.

And, while Cuomo is entangled in a brutal battle with his own Party, Rudy can travel the state, build a a robust grass-roots organization, and raise huge lumps of cash( don't forget, the mayor still has a large national donor base from his presidential bid).

If Rudy runs, Cuomo might very well win the Primary but find himself stretched too thin.

This note was a scare tactic. Cuomo knows that his future is jeopardized by facing a formidable candidate in the General Election. Cuomo needs Rudy to stay out of this thing enabling him to go full throttle during the Primary and than coast through the General Election against Lazio. Therefore, in his desperation, Cuomo sent his little note.

Whatever Rudy decides to do, I think it is fair to say that Cuomo is not as confident as some people think; despite the encouraging polls. And, I don't think Rudy is the kind of man that backs down from a challenge.

For Full Article