Congressional Woes and 2010

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The Democratic House leadership was all smiles back in November. But, in DC, smiles can fade quickly.

A new Rasmussen poll shows signs that the electorate is shifting. Americans are disappointed in the "change" that has come, at least in congress (and this was before Speaker Pelosi began flopping in the wind and has become entangled in the lies of what she did and did not and did know about water boarding). This is obviously worrisome for the Democrats and provides some glimmer of hope for the GOP as they continue to stumble towards 2010.

Americans are emotional voters. While we are concerned with policy issues, we are deeply motivated by our hearts. The complete lack of substance in the last presidential election should be sufficient proof of that. After all, the Democrats won on the platform of change, although no one really knew what that meant or could even truly explain a single Obama policy position.

Over the last decade, Americans have become disenchanted with the Republican congress and its empty promises. We have all been disappointed and shook our heads in disgrace as spending skyrocketed, wars dragged on and corrption ran rampant in the House. So, in November 2008, the GOP took a “thumpin” and absolute control over the legislative branch was handed over to the Democrats with all the hope in the world that they could change the direction of country.

Change! Yes we can!

But, they didn’t and Americans are upset.

According to the poll, less than 15% of Americans trust Congress. Corruption in the House is a prime concern for more than most country; 79% of Americans think that it is the second most important issue to them.

The new congress came to power with a sinking economy. In November, things looked pretty darn bad. Voters hoped that a change in power would deliver the country from slipping into another Depression. Once again, people feel let down and confidence in the competence of congress has vanished.

It is fair to say that the economy dominated the conversation as the 2008 election came to a close. And most Americans voted for change; they voted for Obama to help save the American economy. That hope in change translated into victories down the ballot for Democrats across the nation. However, after three months of being in power, the American public isn't so sure that the vote for the Democrats has brought the change they hoped. Is there anything more painful than crushed hopes? Maybe Americans are having a slight case of buyer's remorse?

For the second month in a row now, Democrats and Republicans are in a dead heat over who is more trusted to handle the economy. For four straight months voters trust the Republicans more on taxes.

While the economy is still the top issue for most Americans, more and more are becoming concerned with our national security; 70% the highest level since September 2007. Obviously, Americans are concerned with the new administration's national security policies. Tomorrow's meeting between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will clarify how serious this administration views the Iranian threat. While many people wanted to see the war in Iraq fought differently, for the first time since September 2007, the American people trust Republicans more on Iraq than the Democrats by two points.

As the GOP is gaining confidence on the the policy front, it is clearly translating into votes. The same poll shows that Republican congressional candidates lead the Democrats on a generic ballot for the second straight week in a row.

However, don't get on your high horse just yet. This isn't all good news for the Republicans.


With all these numbers, it would seem that the mood of the country is shifting. While Americans thought that Obama and a Democrat run congress would offer the policies needed to help save the economy, put more money in our pockets, and bring dignity back to image of America, it has become clear that that simply isn't the case. Change has arrived and Americans aren't pleased.

This is a positive sign for Republican candidates heading into 2010. As the political pieces are lining up, a opportunity to regain seats in the House is within reach. However, it will not be easy.

While confidence in the Democratic run congress is slipping, faith in the Grand Old Party has not improved. The Democrats had a solid 6-7 point lead over the Republicans as 2009 kicked off. Basically, the faith in the Democrats is dwindling and it has yet to convert the American people into Republican voters. I believe that the Republicans have yet to offer a significant and clear alternative to the Democrats. If the GOP begins to lead the conversation with articulate opposition and sensible policies you will see the gap between those numbers begin to increase substantially.

It is critical for the GOP to have a vocal, articulate and robust leadership. They must recruit effective candidates and they must target every seat. If the Republicans fail to seize this opportunity, they might be doomed to roam the wilderness for longer than anyone would like, and rightfully so.